Outs and equity
How to count your outs, turn them into a percentage with the rule of 2 and 4, and avoid the outs that are not really outs.
An out is a card that turns your hand into the winner. Count your outs, and you know your chance of winning - your equity - well enough to make the right call with pot odds.
Counting outs
On the flop you have seen 5 cards: your two and the three on the board. That leaves 47 unseen cards, and after the turn, 46.
| Your draw | Example | Outs |
|---|---|---|
| Flush draw | A♥10♥ on K♥7♥2♣ | 9 (the other hearts) |
| Open-ended straight draw | 9♠8♦ on 10♥7♣2♠ | 8 (four jacks, four sixes) |
| Gutshot straight draw | 9♠8♦ on J♥7♣2♠ | 4 (the tens) |
| Two overcards | A♠K♦ on 9♥6♣2♠ | 6 (three aces, three kings) |
| Pair to two pair or trips | A♥J♦ on J♣8♠3♥ | 5 (three aces, two jacks) |
| Pocket pair to a set | 6♠6♦ on K♥9♣2♠ | 2 |
| Flush draw + open-ended | 9♥8♥ on 10♥7♥2♣ | 15 |
When two draws share cards, do not count them twice. The flush-plus-straight draw has 9 hearts and 8 straight cards, but two of those straight cards are hearts: 9 + 6 = 15.
From outs to a percentage
Show the table
| Outs | Turn only | River only | By the river | Rule of 2 and 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 2% / 4% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.4% | 4% / 8% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 6% / 12% |
| 4 | 8.5% | 8.7% | 16.5% | 8% / 16% |
| 5 | 10.6% | 10.9% | 20.4% | 10% / 20% |
| 6 | 12.8% | 13.0% | 24.1% | 12% / 24% |
| 7 | 14.9% | 15.2% | 27.8% | 14% / 28% |
| 8 | 17.0% | 17.4% | 31.5% | 16% / 32% |
| 9 | 19.1% | 19.6% | 35.0% | 18% / 36% |
| 10 | 21.3% | 21.7% | 38.4% | 20% / 40% |
| 11 | 23.4% | 23.9% | 41.7% | 22% / 44% |
| 12 | 25.5% | 26.1% | 45.0% | 24% / 48% |
| 13 | 27.7% | 28.3% | 48.1% | 26% / 52% |
| 14 | 29.8% | 30.4% | 51.2% | 28% / 56% |
| 15 | 31.9% | 32.6% | 54.1% | 30% / 60% |
Gold bars show the chance of hitting by the river (two cards to come); the darker bars show the chance on the turn alone. Open the table for the exact numbers.
The rule of 2 and 4
At the table you do not need the chart:
- On the flop, with two cards to come: outs × 4.
- On the turn, with one card to come: outs × 2.
A flush draw on the flop: 9 × 4 = 36%. The exact figure is 35.0%. Close enough to decide.
The rule overestimates big draws: 15 outs × 4 says 60%, but the truth is 54.1%. Above about 12 outs, use outs × 3 + 8 instead.
Remember that ×4 assumes you will see both cards for the price of one call. If your opponent will bet again on the turn, judge the flop call with ×2.
Dirty outs
Not every card that improves your hand makes it the winner.
- Your out gives them a better hand. Drawing to a straight on a board with two of a suit: if the straight card is also that suit, your opponent may make a flush.
- They already beat your improved hand. Pairing your ace with A♦J♣ does not help if your opponent holds A♠K♦.
- The board pairs. Your flush draw is no good if your opponent already has a set, because a paired board can give them a full house.
When in doubt, discount: count a doubtful out as half.
Equity is more than outs
Equity is your share of the pot if all the cards were dealt out right now. Outs are a quick way to estimate it when you are behind. When you are ahead, your equity is simply 100% minus your opponent's outs. On K♥7♥2♣ with K♠Q♦ against a flush draw, you win about 65% of the time by the river: their 9 outs give them about 35%.
See how real hands compare in preflop matchups.