Poker probabilities

A short reference of the probabilities that come up again and again in Texas Hold'em. Every figure here is exact, rounded to one decimal place.

Before the flop

Event	Chance
Being dealt any pocket pair	5.9%
Being dealt a specific pair (e.g. AA)	0.45% (1 in 221)
Being dealt two suited cards	23.5%
Being dealt ace-king (any suits)	1.2%
With KK, at least one of 8 opponents holds AA	about 4%

What the flop brings

Pocket pair flops a set or better 11.8%

Two unpaired cards flop at least a pair 32.4%

Suited cards flop a flush 0.8%

Suited cards flop a flush draw 10.9%

Suited cards make a flush by the river 6.4%

Pocket pair makes a set or better by the river 19.2%

Three of these drive whole strategies:

Sets: 11.8%. Small pairs play for a set, which means you need to win about 7.5 times your call when you hit to make up for the times you miss. That is why small pairs want deep stacks.
Pairing: 32.4%. Two unpaired cards miss the flop about two times in three. Your opponents miss too: that is what makes continuation bets work.
Flushes from suited cards: 6.4%. Being suited is a bonus, not a plan.

Board	What to fear
A pair, e.g. 8♠8♦3♣	Trips and full houses become possible
Three of a suit	Anyone with two of that suit has a flush
Four to a straight, e.g. 9♣8♦7♥6♠	Anyone with a ten or a five has a straight

Percentage	Odds against	Rough feel
50%	1 to 1	A coin flip
33%	2 to 1	One time in three
25%	3 to 1	One time in four
20%	4 to 1	One time in five
11.8%	7.5 to 1	Flopping a set
4.3%	22 to 1	Hitting a two-outer on the river

Put these to work with outs and equity and pot odds.